Chairman Comments / Speech Speech 2022 Economic Outlook and Sustainable Capital Road -Lecture at the Japan Economic Research Center-
notebook-laptopThis is Tokura, Chairman of Keidanren.
Today, I am very honored to have a chance to talk at a special lecture on the Japan Economic Research Center.
On June 1, this year, I became Chairman Keidanren.It was a very tough decision for me to be entrusted with Mr. Nakanishi, and to take the heavy responsibility of Keidanren's chairman in a very difficult situation of the corona evil, and in a very difficult situation of Corona.
However, considering Mr. Nakanishi's remorse, Mr. Nakanishi has been laid out for the past six months since he took office, as there is the word, "I can't see righteousness.".In order to inherit and develop basic routes such as for SDGs and sustainable capitalism, we have been working with a sense of speed.
Today, we will be entitled "2022 economic prospects and sustainable capitalism", and we know that it is "sermon to Buddha" for gathering, but Japan's economic prospects and Keidanren's sustainable capitalism, etc.I will introduce about it.
（スライド3）In 2021, the Japanese economy has been forced to stagnate due to intermittent expansion of the new Corona and the accompanying action restrictions.And unfortunately, the recovery pace is very slow in developed countries.
（スライド4）Corporate performance is plus on all industrial basis, but the face -to -face service industry is recovering on the feet, but has been in a negative area.In this way, the appearance of the so -called K -shaped recovery is prolonged.
（スライド5）However, after the October-December 2021, our economy is expected to recover.It is expected to return to the level before the Corona Shock (2019 4Q) in the January-March FY022 period.However, it is necessary to watch the trends of new varieties.The world economy in 2022 is expected to continue recovery due to normalization of demand trends and the easing supply constraints.However, the recovery pace may gradually decelerate over 2023.
According to recent private economists, this year's real GDP growth rate is 2.It is expected to be 7 %.
（スライド6）Regarding the above, I think everyone is a common recognition.Based on this area, we will introduce the "Survey Results of Business Risk and Policy Requests" published by Keidanren the other day.
First of all, many companies, regardless of the industry, have been prolonged to infectious diseases regarding short -term business risks.In addition, the manufacturing industry has issued the problem of supply chain and resource prices.Non -manufacturing industries have been short of human resources.
（スライド7）Needless to say, regarding the policy demands for the government in response to this, requests for infectious diseases such as "vaccination", "treatments", and "traffic of people" are higher.
（スライド8）On the other hand, for medium -term risks, "obsolescing conventional business models", "a shortage of necessary human resources", "delay in domestic digital transformation (DX)", "domestic green transformation (GX)".There are points out about "delay".In the manufacturing industry, the answer rate of "issues over the supply chain" was high.
（スライド9）Regarding the mid -term policy request, "Support for DX Promotion" and "Support for GX Promotion" are at the top.In the manufacturing industry, the response rate of "support for supply chain multisting and toughness" and "response to maintaining and strengthening international economic order" was high.
To summarize the above, in the short term, focus on Corona support, normalize Japan's socio -economic activity, implement a growth strategy using DX and GX as a pillar, and then to economic security, such as supply chain issues.By promoting the response of, it is necessary to carry the Japanese economy on the growth track.As for these, I don't think the gap between everyone and perception is big.
（スライド10）Ian Bremar's Eurasian Group has compared 2020 and 2021 about top risks published at the beginning of the year.
As I mentioned earlier, the risks of supply chains are attracting attention because of the rise in geopolitical risks represented by the United States and China.
また、今年のトップリスクであげられた「46＊」。46に注が着くという意味で、つまり、第46代大統領のバイデン大統領は、米国の約半数から正統性を欠くとみなされているという問題を指摘したものです。
Unfortunately, Ian Bremar's earlier point was a reality.It was a very shocking event that the US Federal Congress was attacked by the Trump supporters early this year.
With the inauguration of President Biden, he returned to democracy and returned to the Paris Agreement, and has returned to the United States to international cooperation, and in terms of stability of international order, it seemed safe in America Is Back.
However, the recent President Videnn's approval rating has been sluggish, and he has heard that Vice President Camara Harris, the assistant, is unpopular.
In this situation, we have to survive next year's midterm election.On the other hand, I have heard that Trump's popularity among Republican supporters is strong.Stability in international situations requires stability in the United States, but the US domestic risk is in such a situation, and it is concerned that the international situation is still a mixed situation.The other day, when he talked to Bremar, he said the same thing.Therefore, no matter how much emphasis of international cooperation, Japan does not emphasize too much.
（スライド11）In addition, it is not realistic to seek so -called decupping, which separates supply chains in the United States and China for the United States and China.This is a diagram of the mutual exports and exports of Japan, the United States, China, and the EU, and it is clear that it is collaborating with each other.
Under these circumstances, the world cannot live without China, and China cannot live without the world.Therefore, the essentials of the relationship with China are "Competition with Co-Operations".
In order to face China, Japan will further strengthen cooperation with countries and regions that share values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and law, so-called Like-Neded Countries (comrades).You have to focus.
What kind of thoughts and philosophy should Japan have in the future economic and social direction based on this economic situation and international situation?As one of the ideas, I would like to introduce the "sustainable capitalism" listed by Keidanren.
（スライド13）Once again, I tried to organize capitalism.
The starting point is the mainstream new classical economics.The idea is to defend personal freedom and rights after the Civil Revolution, pursue profits through free economic activities, and ultimately achieve efficient resource allocation.
However, the General Depression occurred, the imbalance of the market, a large number of unemployed people were born, and the "first crisis" occurred.Here, Keynes economics appears.The government controls demand and corrects imbalances.In addition, the idea of the new classical group came out.In the short term, Keynes economics is used, and the long -term new classical school is used.
However, the "second crisis" was shouted due to a sense of crisis on the East and West Cold War, Vietnam War, and the stagnation of the US economy. This time, the air of anti -quoins has been born, and the rise of neo -liberalism, led by Milton Friedman (Chicago), has spread free release and market fundamentalism (new classical economics). The economic policy that incorporates it is Raganomics and City. Hirofumi Uzawa, a global economist, used a good expression as "twisting history". Later, after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union, Francis Fukuyama declared the victory of capitalism. Thorough neo -liberalism has led to the increase in disparity and the collapse of the ecosystem. Expansion of gaps caused division and conflict in each layer, causing populism, protectionism, and nationalism. It also brought the ideology conflict of trade, trade conflict, advanced technology conflict, and democracy vs. auto classy.
（スライド14）There are two major events brought by such a global capitalism and market fundamentalism. One is the widening, fixing, and reproduction of the gap. The other is the collapse of the ecosystem, climate change issues, and emerging infectious diseases such as new colona. Capitalism / market economy, such as free and active competitive environment, efficient resource allocation, and creation of innovation, is a major premise of Japan's social and economic activity. However, based on these issues, we believe that we have come to a review of the capitalist routes so far. Under these circumstances, the ideas that emphasize sustainability, such as SDGs and ESG investment, are recognized around the world. The US economic organization BRT has also expressed its emphasis on stakeholders value from the share holders value. The WEF also pointed out that the stakeholder capitalism, the overdose shareholder capitalism, is the tide of the world economy. Therefore, Keidanren set up a "sustainable capitalism" in 2020.
（スライド15）(1) I would like to look at the data on the collapse of ecosystems such as expanding, fixing, reproduction, climate change issues, and emerging infectious diseases such as new colona.
First, regarding the enlargement, fixing, and reproduction of the gap, it was created from the open data called World INEQUALITY DATABASE, a graph of graphing in the United States.This database was created by researchers around the world, such as Professor Piketi of the 21st Century Capital.Orange lines indicate the asset share of the top 1 % of the United States, and the blue line shows the income share of the top 1 %.Obviously, the gap has been expanding since 1980.Currently, the top 1 % of the United States accounts for 20 % of the income share and 35 % in asset share.It is clear that the gap is reproduced across generations.
（スライド16）
Next is the collapse of the ecosystem.Since the 20th century, it has exceeded 2 billion in the 1920s, now over 7 billion, and the world's population has increased explosively.Naturally, during this period, with the economic activity of mankind, "external non -economy" such as global warming occurred, the collapse of the ecosystem has occurred, and the world is facing the Sustainability crisis.The world's population peaked almost 1100 billion in 2100, according to the United Nations.This is because the developing countries will be enriched and the child birth rate will decrease.
In front of this reality, it is inevitable to be seriously and seriously imported into carbon neutral.In recent buzzwords, there is also the word "human new" (Anthropocene).Some say that if the earth is compared to a life form, the abnormal expansion of mankind is the virus, and the COVID-19 is immunity.
（スライド17）大気中のCO2濃度から見ても、産業革命前の280ppm程度から400ppm超のレベルにまで上昇しています。もはや “point of no return”後戻りできない状況です。更に進んで450ppmを超えると、今度は“tipping point”（臨界点）を超え、不可逆反応が起こり、温暖化が急速に進みます。私が経団連会長に就任してから、GXは、最重要課題の一つです。
（スライド18）Based on the above, I would like to reconsider capitalism again.The hint is the concept of Mr. Hirofumi Uzawa's "social common capital".This refers to social common capital that cannot be handled by market principles alone, such as a natural environment, social infrastructure, education, and medical care.I have to pay tribute to Dr. Uzawa's 50 years ago, that is, a sense of crisis since the rise of neo -liberal philosophy.
I would like to look back on John Rolls's "justice theory" about what is a fair distribution and what is justice.Dr. Uzawa criticized neoliberalism."People are homosexonomics, which pursues economic rationality," said Milton Friedman.However, Usawa -sensei was opposed to the uniform view that a variety of people would not have a fair distribution.It was said that economics that started on the wrong assumption could not pursue human happiness.The important thing is to put a social perspective in the market economy of "From the Social Point of View".Public goods are not thrown into market principles, but control using the mechanism of the market economy.
On the other hand, Rolls' first principle acknowledges individual freedom unless it violates the freedom of others. In the second principle, the equal opportunity to conduct economic activity is accepted, and even if there is a gap, it is accepted. However, even if there is a gap, the economic situation of the most blessed person must be improved. It leads to SDGs's inclusion. Bensham's utilitarianism, the largest number of happiness, and the skepticism of the happiness of the people, were uniform. Both looked at the collapse of the actual disparities and ecosystems, and thought about how far the inequality occurred there, acknowledging the free economic activities of individuals. It is necessary to brush up the wisdom of these predecessors. Keidanren has raised sustainable capitalism because it is necessary to establish capitalism / market economy that includes "sociality", "human life", and "meaning of living", that is, capitalism incorporating Social Point of View. I did it. Companies are members of Earth citizens and society, and it is necessary to solve social issues through innovation. All Inclusive society in Sustainable, that is, Society 5.0 must be realized.
（スライド19）This year, the Kishida Cabinet was born and raised a "new capitalism".This "new capitalism" is a very time -round, with Keidanren's "Sustainable Capitalism".
（スライド20）The Kishida Cabinet has established a "New Capital Realization Conference".The government has a "new capitalism" with the concept of "a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution" and "development of a new society after colona", and I am also participating in the meeting.
（スライド21）This is the slide I used at the first meeting (October 26).As a matter of problem with this "new capitalism", it is important to first solidify its basic thinking and clarify the base of the Kishida Cabinet policy in the future.
After that, I said three points.The first point is, of course, our economic activity is based on capitalism and market economy, and in Japan, where it continues to grow, it is important to grow.If you do not expand the pie of the economic economy, the distribution policy is limited.However, in the trend of a multi -stakeholder -oriented era from a share holder, growth and distribution should be discussed as a set.
The second point is that the tasks to be tackled for growth are the construction of so -called "social common capitals", such as system capital such as natural environment, medical care, and education.Specifically, it is a problem with the crisis management ability in Japan, which became a problem in Corona.In addition, the promotion of GX and DX promotion for the 2050 carbon native and the delay in digitalization.This is an effective tool for realizing an all -inclusive society and promoting the region.Both are urgent issues in Japan.Furthermore, the promotion of GX and DX triggers investment in Japan and is directly linked to Japan's economic growth.
Third, as I mentioned earlier, the development of such social infrastructure is a problem that cannot be solved by the market economy alone, and the role of the government is extremely important.Looking at large -scale fiscal dispatch in Europe and the United States in the green field and delays in digitalization in Japan, it is clear that the importance of the government's industrial policy is increasing to promote GX and DX.
The power of science is also important for promoting GX and DX.In other words, it is necessary to strengthen our basic research capabilities in Japan, and it is especially important to enhance the science and mathematics education that supports it.
In this way, we hope that the discussion will proceed based on three points, "growth is important," "building social common capital," and "the role of the government is important."However, as these "new capitalism" are studying, we are very concerned that "GX" may be falling as a consideration item, and even in the second (11/8) meeting.I said.
（スライド22）This is a part of the world's 17 countries, published in September of this year by the Purisato Center in the United States in 17 countries. Answer to the question, "How much do you want to change your life and work to reduce the effects of global climate change?" If you look at this graph, it is very unfortunate that Japanese awareness is not higher than in Europe and the United States regarding the change of behavior on climate change problems. On the other hand, GX is a pillar of the growth of Japan, as well as the words of Transformation, which is a social transformation, urging industries and people to significant changes. We recognize that it is necessary to promote GX and regain the delay in consciousness in Japan as a public -private one, and discuss the whole government as one of the important themes of "new capitalism". I'm looking forward to it.
（スライド24）This is a table comparing NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) in each country.Even in Japan, 2050 seems to be far away, and it is a short story.Above all, the 46 % GHG reduction goal in 2030 is an extremely high hurdle.Here are three points to consider to achieve the carbon native in Japan.
The first point is that you have to consider Japanese geographical constraints and handy.For example, Japan is an island country with Isolate, and unlike European continents, there is no grid network.In addition, there are few flatlands in the mountains.The second point is technological innovation.It is essential to create non -existent technologies for carbon neutral.However, it takes 10 years to develop new technologies, 2 to 3 years for plant demonstration, 3 to 4 years for social implementation, 1-2 years for plant construction and tuning, and about 20 years in total.If you calculate back from the realization of carbon neutral in 2050, you have to work on innovation right away.On the other hand, it is hardly expected to contribute to the achievement of the 2030.
The third point is a transition.In the 2050 carbon neutral, you do not go to a pair of jumping, but to formulate a roadmap in the transition process.Both are not easy to do.
（スライド25）To realize a carbon neutral, how to avoid fossil fuels.I think there are 6 directions.
The first is to secure zero emission power that does not use fossil fuels such as renewable energy and nuclear power as much as possible. Approximately 40 % of fossil fuels are used for electricity. The second is to use this zero emission power supply to electrify what has been used for heat sources so far. The third is to introduce carbon -free hydrogen and ammonia for the heat sources that still remain. However, carbon cannot be eliminated from the earth. The human body is composed of carbon, such as amino acids and protein. The medicine is also made from amino acids, or carbon. Organic matter is made of carbon, and it is impossible to eliminate carbon from the earth. Therefore, it is important to recycle carbon used in the material as the fourth. It is necessary to promote carbon re -cycle and chemical recycling. Fifth, it is necessary to realize process innovation in energy -consuming industries. For example, a zero carbon cheel in the steel industry. To do so, the sixth is to establish a next -generation electric power system, such as the enabling renewable grid network and a power storage function as an energy infrastructure.
（スライド26）In the greeting of Keidanren Chairman in June, it has expressed a new "Low Carbon Society Execution Plan" as a "carbon neutral behavior plan" that Keidanren has been promoting.On November 8, the carbon native action plan was compiled as a Keidanren's action plan for Carbon Nuatral in 2050.The content consists of four pillars: the formulation of a vision for the 2050 carbon neutral, the discharge suppression, the coordination between the subjects, the international contribution, and the innovative technology development.The point of this plan is that since the government declared carbon nuoral in 2050, all industries in Japan have been able to get a pre -aim for this.This time, this is meaningful.
（スライド27）However, the carbon neutral behavior plan is a voluntary initiative in each industry.In the current situation where the energy of energy has not progressed, there is a limit to the discussion in the realization of carbon neutral in anticipation.Therefore, we must ask the government to support policy.For example, the promotion of GX requires discussions on energy policy, such as nuclear power such as renewable energy introduction, restarting, replacement, SMR development, and development of future nuclear fusion.Alternatively, if GX changes the industrial structure of Japan, there is also a need for labor, such as risking to promote the facilitations of labor movements.
Regarding carbon pricing, on the premise that it contributes to growth, it is necessary to think of the optimal policy mix that can be used as an industrial policy, encouraging social transformation, including credit transactions, caps and trade, carbon tax, etc.there is.Europe is developing an economic diplomatic strategy in a way, like carbon border adjustment measures.The perspective of economic security is indispensable for procurement of hydrogen and ammonia from overseas.In other words, discussions on diplomacy and security are also needed.In addition, investment in the Green and American greens, that is, Green Deal, has been strategically implemented with multiple years large -scale financial measures as a medium- to long -term industrial policy.I think that this should be an opportunity to review Japan's budget -year -year -old fiscal year and consider multi -year budgets.
Finally, as for sustainable finance, it is also important for the public and private finance viewpoints that support R & D and social implementation to realize carbon neutral.
（スライド28）From the above various perspectives, I will talk a little more about the energy policy and carbon pricing.
The first point is about energy policy.According to the 6th Energy Basic Plan decided in October of this year, the ratio of the power supply composition was 36-38 % in FY200 in FY2019, and 6 % of nuclear power was 20 in FY2030.It has a very ambitious goal of 22 %.
（スライド29）As I mentioned earlier, we need to take into account the geographical characteristics of Japan.Moreover, as shown in this table, the capacity of solar power generation facilities per flat land area is already the largest in major countries.In the future development, we must discuss how to expand renewable energy in Japan, which has a geographical handicap of an island country with few flatlands, based on the problem of large -scale natural disasters in Japan.not.
In the future, if discussions on conservation of natural capital and ecosystems increase internationally, the development may be further restricted.In addition, the solar and wind power of renewable energy is a variable power supply and depends on the weather.It is not even possible to read the sunny rain, and of course, it must be combined with a power supply (load -following power supply) such as thermal power generation to adjust supply and demand.
Needless to say, if you set your goals, there are many issues you need to think, not over.
（スライド30）Furthermore, how to do a nuclear power plant as a zero -emission base road power supply?As shown in this figure, only 10 nuclear power plants have been restarted.
（スライド31）As shown in this figure, on the premise of operating 60 years, the nuclear power plant will only operate in 2050 and 8 in 2060.The restart of the nuclear power plant, which has been confirmed to be safe, is inevitable for the realization of carbon native in 2050.In addition, it is necessary to use the nuclear power plant that has already invested in terms of reducing energy costs.Furthermore, in the future, we must work on the development of small modules (SMR).
I heard that South Korea is also promoting SMR development.South Korea is also an energy mix similar to Japan.The research institute, which is scheduled to operate in 2025, will be conducting about 31 billion yen, developing SMR, storing waste, and studying nuclear power dismantling technology.Neither nuclear power to restart or develop new technology is not possible.If you do nothing, there is a sense of crisis that Japan's skills and human resources will be lost.
（スライド32）Personally, I think it is necessary to look further ahead and develop nuclear fusion.Nuclear fusion is a technology that uses the energy generated when heavy hydrogen and triple hydrogen nuclei.Rather than nuclear fusion, it can be called hydrogen fusion.Heavy hydrogen is abundant in the sea, there is no risk of resource depletion, unlike fission, not a chain reaction, so it is safe.Moreover, high -level radioactive waste does not occur.To put it simply, it creates the sun on the ground.
In addition, international projects, including nuclear fusion experimental furnace ITER, are progressing.In particular, Japanese companies have greatly contributed to the tip of ITER.We sincerely hope that the public and private sectors will accelerate the development of nuclear fusion.
（スライド33）カーボンプライシングは、炭素の排出に価格を付けるもので、カーボンプライシング＝炭素税ではありません。炭素税の他にも、排出権取引（キャップ＆トレード）、クレジット取引、法規制や企業が独自に自社のCO2排出に価格付けを行うインターナル・カーボンプライシングなどがあります。例えば、EUでは、炭素税以外にも、EU-ETSといった排出権取引を導入しており、制度導入から15年以上が経過し、紆余曲折を経た歴史があり、現在に至っています。
Japan promotes social transformation, including referring to these precedent cases, with a wide frontage, including credit trading, caps and trading, carbon taxes, etc., assuming that carbon pricing in Japan contributes to growth.You need to consider the optimal policy mix that can be a policy.
（スライド34）GX has such a large number of important issues.Therefore, again, we believe that the whole government should discuss one of the important themes of "new capitalism".At the same time, Keidanren is considering making suggestions for GX realization based on these various issues.I would like to summarize the report next spring.
Finally, I will introduce my favorite words and end today's lecture.
（スライド35）The economy is a word emitted from the Chinese "Susumu Senshu (Susumu), the people who have finished the people".It must be useful for people's happiness.A letter to Keynes to Harrods states, "Economics is not a natural science, moral science and moral science. It involves the internal ministry and value judgment to do this.""When the market is away from society, everything will be slaved to the market demand," said Karl Polanny, a Hungarian human history scholar.
In other words, the viewpoint of "sociality", "fairness" and "justice" is important to consider the economy.When I became Chairman of Keidanren, I wanted members of the members to value Social Point of View.We will respect these ideas to establish "sustainable capitalism".
（スライド36）This photo is the word "righteous" written by the calligrapher Murasaki, which is decorated in the Keidanren Chairman's office. It is my favorite word "righteous". "Daiki", "justice" and "Shinsei". Looking back on my own actions, I always act while thinking about whether there is "righteousness" or "public". It is at the root of my own thoughts. As I mentioned earlier, GX is a pillar of growth, it is a social transformation, which is a major change in industries and people. The impact is laamical for each industry, which has a significant impact on people's lives. In order to promote GX, it is necessary for the people to correctly understand the scientific, logical and quantitative situation, including inconvenience, including inconvenience. Keidanren claims what to say for "public", "society", and for the "people". We will disseminate information, make policy proposals, and reveal active discussions.
Thank you for your attention.
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